Berlin (dpa) – According to a study, the Berlin and Munich area and several university cities have the best growth prospects after the Crown crisis.
Five of the 10 growth winners through 2030 come from eastern Germany, according to a long-term forecast released Friday by the research institute Prognos.
The top ten in the east include the city of Potsdam, the Dahme-Spreewald district with the new BER airport, the Oder-Spree district with the future factory of the American electric car manufacturer Tesla, and the university cities of Leipzig and Rostock. Hessen is there with Darmstadt.
In Bavaria, the Munich Dachau, Ebersberg and Erding districts, as well as the university town of Regensburg, are expected to have the best growth prospects. The “Handelsblatt” had previously reported on the study.
The study predicts economic growth and employment development in the 401 German districts and urban districts. Therefore, economically efficient regions will continue to grow faster even after the crisis. This applies to metropolises such as Berlin, Munich, Hamburg and Cologne, but also to Jena, Kassel, Darmstadt, Augsburg, Essen and Münster.
However, according to the information, the circles in which the crown crisis and structural problems overlap – old industries, low incomes, aging populations and declining population numbers are struggling.
According to Prognos, the impact of the crisis in the crown weakened all regions economically. Many would return to the growth path, but not necessarily to the previous level. According to the researchers, the sectors in which sectors such as hospitality, travel, aviation and automotive dominate are particularly affected by the crisis. This applies to the automobile cities of Wolfsburg, Ingolstadt, Dingolfing and Schweinfurt, for example.
Prognos chief Christian Böllhoff hopes that Germany will not return to its pre-Crown year 2019 economic performance until 2023. Thereafter, labor shortages increasingly slow growth. “In the second half of the next decade we will experience what we have all seen coming for 20 years, but some never wanted to admit it: demographic change is having a total impact on the labor market,” Böllhoff told the “Handelsblatt”.
In total, the number of workers in Germany will decrease by seven percent between 2019 and 2030, according to Prognos.