The federal government has set ambitious goals for the mobility transition. Market watchers doubt they are realistic. And I still see a lot of need for action.
Munich / Frankfurt (dpa) – The federal government’s goal of putting at least 10 million electric cars into circulation by 2030 is unrealistic, according to consultancy Deloitte.
Under current conditions, a figure of 6.35 million vehicles seems likely at the time, according to the study released Monday. With additional efforts, especially from industry, but also from the state, and changed attitudes among consumers, it is possible to increase the number by 2.2 million new registrations.
Specifically, Deloitte consultants propose to the state an extension of the purchase premiums until the end of 2023 and then a significant increase in the price of fuel for the remaining combustion engines. The price per liter should increase by a total of 30 cents from 2021 to 2024. The industry must develop more profitable platforms for electric cars and innovative charging concepts, as well as reduce the production costs of batteries.
Only in 2032 will fewer combustion engines be registered on the German market than alternatively-powered cars, the study continues. While hybrid combustion and electric propulsion solutions are becoming less and less important, there is a growing demand for battery solutions, especially for small and compact cars. Starting in 2026, fuel cell technology could also play a bigger role.