Nuremberg (dpa) – It could have been a success story: Germany’s labor market recovered remarkably well in October. 2,760 million people are unemployed, 87,000 less than in September.
In the Corona year, this is a very significant autumn recovery compared to previous years, on average the number of unemployed falls by only 48,000 from September to October, as the executive director of the Federal Employment Agency explained on Thursday in Nuremberg, Detlef Scheele.
There are only two catches: October figures from the Federal Agency are only collected until the middle of the month, in this case before the drastic increase in the number of corona infections. Second, less than 24 hours before the labor market statistics were released, it became known that there would be a second lockdown in the fight against the pandemic, so the joy of October’s recovery could be short-lived.
“It will lead to a collapse in the labor market, but not a collapse,” Scheele said. We think there will be a dent in November. ” There are “industries for which it is bitter,” he said, mentioning the hotel industry and tourism first.
November is for such a measure, with which the hope of normalization from December is connected, but also a wisely chosen month, with comparatively low retail sales and still little seasonal business in gastronomy and tourism. “Skiing is not yet the order of the day,” Scheele said. “If you had taken December or January, it would have been more drastic.”
Scheele certainly expects additional charges on the Federal Agency due to additional expenses for unemployment benefits and short term work. But he also hopes the measures will work. “I would like to point out that it is not a confinement like in March of this year, but a limited one for four weeks and I am hopeful that this intervention will reduce the number of infections in these four weeks and that we will return from December onwards. job we just had in October. ”Measurements differed significantly from spring.
Economics professor Enzo Weber from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Nuremberg expects up to 100,000 additional unemployed. “The reserves of many companies are already heavily used.
It is therefore essential that state aid measures are extended again, ”Weber said. There will be a setback for the labor market in the short term and the number of short-time workers will increase significantly. “For a subsequent recovery in the labor market, promoting new hires will be even more important,” Weber said.
Traces of the coronavirus are clearly etched in the labor market statistics even before the shutdown. 556,000 more people were unemployed a year ago in October 2020, 140,000 of them were victims of layoffs. This number of unemployed indexed by crown has already been 640,000 in recent months.
With a rate of 6.0 percent (September: 6.2 percent), Scheele speaks of a “very positive outlook that will hopefully survive November,” also because the number of short-time workers increased from almost six million in April to August to 2.58 million could be pressed.
From October 1 to 25, a reduced working day was reported for 96,000 people. Experience has shown that the actual number of short-term workers is often less than the number of advertisements. Scheele suspects that the November lockdown could push the number up again.
He said it was gratifying that part-time work apparently did not result in unemployment in most cases. Short-time work and unemployment developed in parallel, suggesting that short-time work serves as a bridge. “There is not a wave of layoffs, everything moves in an orderly way in the labor market,” said Scheele.